MLB best bets: Odds, expert picks, predictions for Sat. 5/11

Twins vs. Blue Jays

Saturday, May 11, 3:07 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Twins Moneyline (BetMGM)

By D.J. James

Kevin Gausman will start for the Blue Jays and although the results have been there, his expected numbers leave a bit to be desired.

Meanwhile, the Twins will start Simeon Woods Richardson, who's done a pretty great job. He has issues with keeping the ball on the ground, but his favorable strikeout and walk numbers should go a long way.

Woods Richardson holds a 1.74 ERA against a 3.73 xERA. Simply put, regression could be in the cards for the young righty, but his expected numbers are still decent. His ground-ball rate and Average Exit Velocity aren't enviable, but he strikes out plenty of hitters and doesn't issues a ton of walks.

He's gone at least five innings in all but one start and could do the same against Toronto's lackluster lineup.

The Twins are decent against right-handed pitching this year. They maintain a 104 wRC+, a 8.9% walk rate and have five batters with a xwOBA over .320.

That should be more than enough against Gausman, who's due for some bad luck.

Gausman was Toronto's ace last year, but his performances this season have been underwhelming as he's seen an increase in barrel rate and a significant decrease in strikeout rate.

His walk rate is still exceptional, but there's a reason his xERA is over 5.00 while his ERA is 3.78.

Minnesota checks the boxes against Toronto in this matchup and Woods Richardson has more favorable peripherals than Gausman.

This line is too favorable for Gausman, so take Minnesota to +100.

Pick: Twins Moneyline

Cubs vs. Pirates

Saturday, May 11, 4:05 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Cubs Moneyline (BetMGM)

By Nick Parsons

I love the way this one sets up for Justin Steele (0-0, 0.96 ERA, 0.86 WHIP) and the Cubs against Paul Skenes (0-0, 0.00), who will make his MLB debut for the Pirates.

Skenes is the No. 1 overall pick from last year's Draft (LSU) and while all his early AAA numbers look great, I still feel he's overmatched here.

This is the most anticipated debut since Stephen Strasburg back in 2010, but Steele is in top form and already has a pair of starts under his belt this season. The lefty threw 4 2/3 scoreless innings and gave up just three hits to the Padres in his most recent outing.

Skenes could go down as the greatest pitcher of all time, but until I see it myself, the value is on Steele and the Cubs.

Pick: Cubs Moneyline

Cardinals vs. Brewers

Saturday, May 11, 7:15 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Brewers -1.5 (FanDuel)

By Tony Sartori

Milwaukee hands the ball to right-hander Freddy Peralta in this matchup, while St. Louis will go with fellow right-hander Kyle Gibson. This season, Peralta outranks Gibson in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and barrel rate.

Not only do the Brewers boast the pitching advantage, but they also possess the clear hitting advantage. Milwaukee ranks higher in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.

It is the better team in almost every single main hitting statistic. Add in the home-field advantage and I think there is more value in backing the Brewers' runline at +130 than laying -168 on the moneyline.

Milwaukee has won nine of the past 10 meetings between these clubs, with seven of those wins coming by at least a two-runs.

Pick: Brewers -1.5

Dodgers vs. Padres

Saturday, May 11, 8:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (DraftKings)

By Charlie Disturco

James Paxton is a walking regression monster. Through six starts, the southpaw has a 3.06 ERA, but expected metrics are THREE runs higher than the actual results.

That’s right, his xERA and xFIP are both in the low 6s as Paxton has really struggled limiting hard contact. He ranks in the bottom 7% of all pitchers in strikeout rate (career-worst 12.9%) and has seen his control completely disappear (17.3 BB%).

Paxton has benefitted from a .245 BABIP and 85.2 LOB% — both way above his career averages. All underlying metrics suggest that’ll turn for the worse. His barrel rate (9.3%) remains an issue, and he’s seen his hard-hit rate gradually rise, as has his ground-ball rate.

All of that to say that Fernando Tatis Jr. could be in for a big game.

Tatis' hard-hit rate ranks in the top 10% of all hitters and his barrel rate has even taken a slight jump. Perhaps most impressive is his career-best .301 xBA (.255 actual).

Last season, Tatis posted a 152 wRC+ against left-handed pitching and a .227 ISO. Despite his lack of success against lefties this season (.129 average), he does have a .357 on-base percentage.

Now could the walks burn me in the end? Totally. Paxton is definitely wild. But Tatis has been aggressive early on and has been hitting the ball hard.

I’ve begun to play more O1.5 hits + runs + RBI props on hitters — walks can at least lead to runs scored — and will be looking to do so here.

Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI