2024 Charles Schwab Challenge picks: 3 outright bets for Colonial

Mark Hubbard +9000 (bet365)

By Spencer Aguiar, Action Network

Mark Hubbard possessed a remarkably consistent profile in my model, grading within the top 20 of this field for Weighted Strokes Gained: Total, Strokes Gained in Windy Conditions, Expected Scoring for Colonial Country Club and the all-important 'Pitch-and-Putt' narrative that has shown high-end success for players in the past at this venue.

Hubbard's inability to gain strokes off the tee gets masked at a venue that renders a zero-impact return from all driving metrics from top to bottom, even if accuracy does carry a 0.25-shot correlation difference over distance. Hubbard's only strength on paper off the tee would be his relatively solid return for accuracy, which piqued my curiosity at a generous price of 90-1.

Maverick McNealy +6500 (bet365)

By Matt Gannon, Action Network

Maverick McNealy’s is a solid driver and an elite putter. Usually he really struggles with his irons, which is tough to overcome on a weekly basis.

However, his course history at Colonial is very encouraging because he has played this event six times and gained strokes with his irons every single time. This is the only course on the PGA Tour where he has accomplished this, with a minimum three starts. There is a ton of nuance at such a positional course as Colonial, so course history is very important.

The course may suit McNealy's eye, and he is entering in great form after having two of his best three weeks on approach this season in his last three tracked starts. The event in which he did not excel on approach was this past weekend's PGA Championship, but McNealy still thrived as the rest of his game was firing on all cylinders as he tied for 23rd.

That sets up for a beautiful match of great course history with solid recent form this week in Fort Worth.

McNealy is yet to win on the PGA Tour but can break through this week if his trending irons give his elite putter enough opportunities.

Scottie Scheffler +280 (FanDuel)

By Tony Sartori, Action Network

Yes, I am aware of how insanely boring it is to pick Scottie Scheffler outright at such a short number. However, even at +280, this is a valuable return on a golfer who is just far-and-away the class of this field.

The gap between Scheffler and the rest of the world is already a pretty significant one at the moment, but the gap widens even more this week when his top competition is Collin Morikawa and Max Homa. Those are the only two golfers in this field who have competed well against Scheffler during this run, and while it is possible one of those two takes him down, I wouldn’t bet on it.

Scheffler has now won four of his past six tournaments while also finishing inside the top 10 in the two he didn’t win. That includes his tie for eighth at last week’s PGA Championship, a finish that is weighed down by his worst round of the season when he went two-over par on Saturday when he competed without his caddie Ted Scott on the bag.

He rebounded with a 65 on Sunday, which was tied for the fourth-lowest round of the day. Therefore, I am not worried about that hiccup entering this week, especially in his home state of Texas at a course where he has finished in the top three each of the past two years.